Mon, Jan 16, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 0, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 08 | 06 | 022 |
| STL | 07 | 011 | 114 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 11:26STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:59DALAlex Goligoski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:38STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:36DALVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:36STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:25STLScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:25STLScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:25DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:26DALMark Fistric: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17STLMatt D'Agostini: Interference2 min
- P3 6:02DALLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wandell won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Fiddler – Nystrom10:24
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Ott – Burish8:09
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Petersen – Wathier – Dowell5:03
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Eriksson – Wandell7:14
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Daley – Goligoski2:19
xG 0.05–0.06 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas10:55
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Fistric – Goligoski12:40
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron5:31
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves4:28
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka8:42
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – D'Agostini – Berglund5:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Cole10:18
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:07
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:01
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).