Tue, Jan 17, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 18 | 010 | 126 |
| PHI | 112 | 314 | 18 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 10:27PHISean CouturierSHGWGAssists: Matt Read · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 11:38MINDarroll PoweAssists: Warren Peters, Mike Lundin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:47PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Brayden Schenn · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:04PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Matt Carle, Matt Read · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 11:58PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Max Talbot, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:14MINMatt Cullen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:42MINDarroll Powe: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:52PHIAndrej Meszaros: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:24MINCal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:22MINCal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:22MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:07MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Setoguchi – Powe8:58
xG 1.01–0.39 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Peters – Clutterbuck – McIntyre4:56
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Staubitz – McIntyre – McMillan3:00
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Heatley – Johnson12:34
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Zidlicky15:42
xG 1.11–1.18 (48%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
- Stoner – Lundin13:33
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Falk – Spurgeon15:14
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:40
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Shelley – Zolnierczyk – Couturier7:21
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek9:25
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read7:10
xG 0.25–0.67 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:05
xG 0.52–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carle – Bourdon12:19
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Gustafsson10:08
xG 0.89–0.72 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).