Tue, Jan 17, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 18 | 110 | 328 |
| WSH | 05 | 05 | 07 | 017 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 6:05NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 12:38NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:17WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27WSHJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:48WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:21NYIMilan Jurcina: Interference2 min
- P2 13:43NYIMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:49WSHJeff Halpern: Holding2 min
- P3 12:10WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:31WSHJohn Carlson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares11:08
xG 1.08–0.10 (92%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner8:00
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter7:02
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Martin10:51
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic15:04
xG 0.93–0.10 (91%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Jurcina15:34
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Eaton – Reese9:36
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Laich – Brouwer6:42
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Eakin5:26
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Halpern – Ward4:33
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Johansson3:17
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wideman5:04
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Kundratek7:23
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Alzner3:09
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).