Tue, Jan 17, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 29 | 06 | 08 | 223 |
| CBJ | 06 | 28 | 211 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01EDMAnton LanderAssists: Josh Green, Ryan Jones · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:50EDMBen EagerAssists: Jeff Petry, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 2:37CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Antoine Vermette, Tomas Kubalik · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 19:59CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, Nikita Nikitin · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 0:32CBJDerek MacKenzieGWGAssists: Colton Gillies · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:38CBJDerek DorsettENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:39CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:36CBJRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:00CBJTomas Kubalik: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:02EDMRyan O'Marra: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Green
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – O'Marra – Paajarvi5:34
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Eager – Gagner4:53
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Jones – Lander5:49
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Green – Hordichuk – Eager2:56
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry14:02
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Potter – Peckham11:51
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Sutton – Peckham3:30
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Nash – Brassard12:53
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Russell – Dorsett10:02
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Vermette – Kubalik – Johansen10:38
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies8:47
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin12:39
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Methot – Moore18:07
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard16:17
xG 0.48–0.62 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).