Tue, Jan 17, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 112 | 011 | 04 | 1 | 332 |
| DAL | 211 | 05 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Jan Mursak · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:59DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 16:28DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Sheldon Souray, Adam Burish · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 1:43DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler scored
- 4. DAL Michael Ryder stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 6. DAL Trevor Daley stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:30DETIan White: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:57DALTom Wandell: Holding2 min
- P3 3:48DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:04DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:29DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- OT 4:42DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler13:59
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader3:50
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Datsyuk2:16
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Mursak4:16
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White17:04
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Stuart – Kronwall15:53
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Stuart – Ericsson2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Ott – Burish9:33
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Petersen – Dowell – Vincour6:35
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Eriksson – Wandell13:59
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Ryder – Fiddler – Nystrom10:33
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Grossmann16:29
xG 0.53–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Fistric – Goligoski16:58
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Souray – Robidas14:29
xG 0.42–0.99 (30%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).