Tue, Jan 17, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 111 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 128 |
| SJS | 04 | 010 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:07CGYChris ButlerAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 10:44SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Michal Handzus, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 2. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
- 3. SJS Michal Handzus scored
- 4. CGY Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 5. SJS Brent Burns scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:30CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:30CGYTJ Brodie: Boarding2 min
- OT 5:00CGYMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Stempniak – Jones6:20
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Cammalleri – Backlund14:47
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Jones – Bouma5:27
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Comeau5:55
xG 0.02–0.25 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler19:48
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Sarich – Brodie13:24
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Babchuk2:45
xG 0.02–0.18 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Mitchell – McGinn8:36
xG 0.72–0.21 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ferriero – Couture13:39
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – Wingels4:19
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – McLaren4:10
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Burns16:17
xG 1.32–0.49 (73%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Braun – Demers12:37
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic20:50
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 12–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).