Wed, Jan 18, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 25 | 15 | 06 | 316 |
| MTL | 07 | 07 | 017 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41WSHMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:23WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Troy Brouwer, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 10:44WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:15MTLRene Bourque: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:15WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:36MTLJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:01WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min
- P1 15:14WSHDennis Wideman: Broken stick2 min
- P2 2:48WSHJeff Halpern: Holding2 min
- P2 7:53MTLMathieu Darche: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:34WSHJohn Erskine: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:34WSHJohn Erskine: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:19MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
- P3 9:23WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Ward – Hendricks6:44
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Semin7:10
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Johansson8:52
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Knuble – Perreault – Eakin5:26
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Carlson13:09
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Erskine – Orlov8:29
xG 0.17–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Alzner – Orlov2:14
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:38
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Blunden2:50
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller3:58
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Diaz6:47
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Weber6:41
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Diaz3:21
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).