Wed, Jan 18, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 113 | 16 | 08 | 227 |
| ANA | 211 | 24 | 26 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:33PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Raffi Torres, Michal Rozsival · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:49ANANiklas HagmanAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Teemu Selanne · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:43ANAFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Jason Blake, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 9:32PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Ray Whitney, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 14:51ANAFrancois BeaucheminGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:54ANAJason BlakeAssists: Nick Bonino, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 3:09ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: George Parros, Sheldon Brookbank · Snap, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 16:23ANACorey PerrySHAssists: Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:02ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:05PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:59ANAJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:09ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:37ANAGeorge Parros: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Chipchura – Brule11:09
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Gordon – Korpikoski10:23
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Pouliot – Boedker11:31
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan10:46
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Summers14:01
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–2
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson16:19
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle16:03
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:14
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Blake – Cogliano – Bonino10:58
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Parros – Pelley – Beleskey8:01
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman12:11
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa14:25
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Lydman – Brookbank13:42
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler18:29
xG 0.62–0.97 (39%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).