Thu, Jan 19, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Boston Bruins 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 06 | 413 | 425 |
| NJD | 110 | 013 | 08 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:29NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 3:01BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Shawn Thornton, Gregory Campbell · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 7:10BOSNathan HortonPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Rich Peverley · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 7:45BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Shawn Thornton, Daniel Paille · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 19:13BOSChris KellyENUnassisted · Snap, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:18BOSNathan Horton: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:31BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:31NJDBrad Mills: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:37NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille8:34
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot11:21
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin14:56
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic15:35
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid8:36
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk16:39
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid3:09
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique14:14
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Zalewski – Josefson9:15
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Janssen – Carter – Mills4:38
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus12:49
xG 0.62–0.99 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Fayne15:03
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Taormina – Larsson19:47
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Foster15:49
xG 0.53–0.73 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).