Thu, Jan 19, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 29 | 26 | 427 |
| PHI | 08 | 017 | 116 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 12:58NYIJosh BaileySHGWGAssists: Matt Martin · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 7:07NYIMark StreitPPAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 10:48PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Andrej Meszaros · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 19:59NYIMichael GrabnerENAssists: PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 14:45PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Holding2 min
- P2 3:00NYINino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:22PHIAndrej Meszaros: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:58NYIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:44NYIDylan Reese: Holding2 min
- P2 17:41PHIClaude Giroux: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:41NYIDylan Reese: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:14NYIPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:34PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:34NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:52PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:59NYIPA Parenteau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:59PHIClaude Giroux: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bailey – Martin8:20
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares13:03
xG 1.22–1.29 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner11:24
xG 0.20–0.29 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter5:01
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:08
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Streit – Jurcina13:56
xG 0.89–1.02 (47%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Eaton – Reese8:34
xG 0.22–0.43 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier4:29
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek9:59
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux10:19
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read5:46
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Gustafsson12:40
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:14
xG 1.26–1.14 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Carle – Bourdon13:07
xG 0.21–0.51 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).