Thu, Jan 19, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 210 | 18 | 325 |
| CBJ | 013 | 07 | 018 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:08NSHMartin EratGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:11NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Martin Erat, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 19:28NSHShea WeberENAssists: Jerred Smithson, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:27CBJRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:34NSHNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 3:53NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:43NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Halischuk – Smith6:43
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque11:31
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:26
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn13:23
xG 0.09–0.81 (10%)attempts 3–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bouillon – Klein2:19
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Weber18:34
xG 0.61–0.89 (41%)attempts 14–25goals 1–0
- Klein – Josi15:53
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Vermette – Nash5:59
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Russell – Dorsett6:21
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Prospal – Nash – Brassard8:54
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Kubalik – Johansen7:14
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin17:08
xG 1.27–0.09 (93%)attempts 26–4goals 0–1
- Methot – Moore19:12
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard11:57
xG 0.22–0.64 (26%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).