Thu, Jan 19, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 17 | 09 | 126 |
| WPG | 119 | 111 | 23 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:34WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Ron Hainsey, Kyle Wellwood · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 4:17BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 12:55WPGToby EnstromPPGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 3:46WPGTim StapletonPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 18:40WPGNik AntropovAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Johnny Oduya · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:29WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:29BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:41BUFDrew Stafford: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31BUFJochen Hecht: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:46WPGTim Stapleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00BUFNathan Gerbe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:00BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28WPGNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:58BUFCody McCormick: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – McCormick – Ellis3:42
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Leino – Adam4:03
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Leino – Adam5:00
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek8:55
xG 0.19–0.78 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Brennan2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Leopold – Gragnani2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gragnani – Weber7:18
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Kane13:06
xG 1.37–0.45 (75%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
- Fehr – Stapleton – Burmistrov6:17
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd9:28
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass11:23
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Enstrom15:54
xG 1.40–0.20 (87%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Oduya – Flood12:29
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Oduya – Jones2:55
xG 0.05–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).