Thu, Jan 19, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 214 | 08 | 01 | 1 | 335 |
| PHX | 113 | 110 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Chris Summers · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:36DETIan WhiteAssists: Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 11:13DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:08PHXGilbert BruleAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHX Shane Doan stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 5. PHX Gilbert Brule stopped
- 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:01PHXRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:59PHXRadim Vrbata: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:28DETBrad Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:32PHXRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:57DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:57PHXKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:54PHXGilbert Brule: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETHenrik Zetterberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHXLauri Korpikoski: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:33PHXRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:41DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen9:45
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Cleary – Miller – Helm10:55
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton3:57
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler8:06
xG 0.41–0.74 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Ericsson4:26
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – White2:15
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl8:00
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Doan – Gordon7:30
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Hanzal3:22
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Hanzal4:54
xG 0.05–0.03 (68%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Gordon – Korpikoski3:34
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle12:39
xG 0.96–0.21 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Summers10:29
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle2:02
xG 0.01–0.02 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).