Fri, Jan 20, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 26 | 212 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 429 |
| PIT | 110 | 112 | 214 | 02 | 1 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34MTLLars EllerAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:02PITKris LetangAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Dustin Jeffrey · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 5:41MTLErik ColeAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 1:09MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 5:32PITDustin JeffreySHAssists: Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 10:34MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Erik Cole, Peter Budaj · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 3:32PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 17:17PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 2. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 3. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 4. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
- 5. PIT James Neal stopped
- 6. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:57MTLMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57PITChris Kunitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:16PITSteve Sullivan: Interference2 min
- P1 6:22PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:37MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:16PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:14PITCraig Adams: Holding2 min
- P2 19:45PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00PITCraig Adams: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:55MTLErik Cole: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:42MTLErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 13:25PITChris Kunitz: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Kostitsyn – Desharnais2:52
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Moen – Plekanec – Bourque10:26
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty8:11
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Kostitsyn – Blunden – Eller5:32
xG 0.11–0.39 (21%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Emelin10:13
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Gill – Gorges14:33
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
- Campoli – Subban11:22
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kennedy – Jeffrey4:47
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Malkin – Neal2:16
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Park – Cooke – Dupuis2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Park – Sullivan – Cooke3:20
xG 0.15–0.55 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Niskanen8:27
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Martin – Letang2:47
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Orpik – Letang13:46
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).