Fri, Jan 20, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 08 | 07 | 023 |
| CAR | 110 | 115 | 18 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:43CARJussi JokinenSHGWGAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 19:42CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Jay Harrison, Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P3 19:30CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Eric Staal, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:53WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:53CARDerek Joslin: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:22CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:14CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:17WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min
- P2 18:11WSHDennis Wideman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:00CARBrandon Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:59WSHCody Eakin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Perreault – Eakin4:04
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Hendricks3:44
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Brouwer2:13
xG 0.06–0.01 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Hendricks – Eakin2:00
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKundratek – Orlov9:05
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wideman – Alzner15:59
xG 0.79–0.68 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Orlov2:11
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Tlusty12:37
xG 0.83–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dalpe – Skinner9:20
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter11:49
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Brent – Stewart7:35
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason16:12
xG 0.95–0.52 (65%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk18:50
xG 0.81–0.56 (59%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Joslin – McBain10:37
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).