Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 29 | 27 | 420 |
| NJD | 09 | 115 | 07 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:30PHIMatt ReadAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:04PHIScott HartnellPPGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 13:32NJDAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Matt Taormina, David Clarkson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:07PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 17:38PHIWayne SimmondsENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.67 xG4–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:15NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:15PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:24PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:59NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:18PHIDaniel Brière: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:42PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:54NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:12PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:12NJDDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:18NJDBrad Mills: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00NJDDainius Zubrus: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:20NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 13:19PHIKimmo Timonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:14NJDBrad Mills: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:14NJDEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:14NJDBrad Mills: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:14PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Schenn4:07
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek8:38
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux2:48
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:14
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle3:38
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros3:12
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Gustafsson8:40
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique9:21
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus9:57
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Boulton – Carter – Mills3:52
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson7:08
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTaormina – Larsson17:38
xG 0.47–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Foster9:43
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Salvador – Fayne12:06
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).