Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 19 | 112 | 326 |
| VAN | 112 | 110 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06VANDavid BoothAssists: Alexander Edler, Chris Higgins · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:54SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Andrew Desjardins · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 1:05SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:29VANCody HodgsonAssists: Mason Raymond, Aaron Rome · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 14:11VANRyan KeslerAssists: David Booth · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 14:47SJSDan BoyleAssists: Joe Pavelski, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 15:43VANCody HodgsonGWGAssists: Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:45SJSJamie McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:36VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34SJSJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:24SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:53SJSJoe Pavelski: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:53VANKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:57SJSBenn Ferriero: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Desjardins5:28
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Winchester – Murray – McCarthy4:57
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ferriero – Couture5:12
xG 0.11–0.09 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Couture2:32
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Braun11:46
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Vlasic17:00
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 16–21goals 0–2
- Murray – Burns14:12
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows13:18
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Hodgson8:44
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth11:29
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise6:29
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Rome11:02
xG 0.90–0.16 (85%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa17:30
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev14:51
xG 0.59–0.96 (38%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).