Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 09 | 13 | 221 |
| STL | 07 | 214 | 26 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:13BUFMike WeberAssists: Tyler Myers, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 7:45STLB.J. CrombeenAssists: David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:13STLDavid PerronAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:35STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
- P3 19:00BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Marc-Andre Gragnani, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 19:25STLDavid BackesENAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:46BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:10STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:20BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:20STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:20BUFJoe Finley: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:20STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:42STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:42BUFJochen Hecht: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:29BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:08STLT.J. Oshie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:08STLT.J. Oshie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00STLJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Boyes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Stafford – Leino13:54
xG 0.83–0.49 (63%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Roy – McCormick – Ellis6:30
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Gerbe12:03
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek4:21
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers10:45
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gragnani – Myers3:36
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Leopold – Gragnani2:42
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron10:22
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka4:48
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – D'Agostini5:04
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves4:49
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:40
xG 1.06–0.52 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Polak – Russell14:26
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk17:16
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).