Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 39 | 17 | 27 | 623 |
| EDM | 07 | 09 | 27 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:14CGYBlake ComeauAssists: Scott Hannan · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 18:52CGYLee StempniakGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 19:24CGYLee StempniakAssists: Blake Comeau, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 4:24EDMAndy SuttonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Smyth · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 7:01CGYJay BouwmeesterPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 16:15EDMRyan SmythAssists: Jeff Petry, Ladislav Smid · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 17:55CGYLee StempniakENAssists: Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:45EDMColten Teubert: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:59EDMRyan Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:23CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:03EDMColten Teubert: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:34CGYJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:29EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 7:56EDMColten Teubert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Stajan – Bouma7:17
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jones10:32
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Cammalleri – Backlund8:39
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
- Jokinen – Stempniak – Comeau9:53
xG 0.16–0.66 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Hannan2:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie12:44
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hannan – Giordano13:02
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hall11:27
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones7:51
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Eager – Lander6:31
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Belanger – Eberle – Paajarvi8:44
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Peckham2:40
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Potter – Peckham10:21
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry14:18
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).