Sat, Jan 21, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 214 | 17 | 331 |
| LAK | 04 | 19 | 013 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:26LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 13:35COLCody McLeodAssists: Stefan Elliott, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 18:55COLPeter MuellerGWGAssists: TJ Galiardi, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 18:03COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:18COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P1 12:02LAKDustin Penner: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 15:13COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 15:01COLPeter Mueller: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:49LAKJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:16LAKJonathan Quick: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Jones – Winnik10:13
xG 0.86–0.11 (89%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Mueller – Galiardi13:00
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:22
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Van Der Gulik – McLeod6:04
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Elliott11:30
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:06
xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson16:06
xG 0.31–1.01 (23%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar14:16
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Hunter – Fraser – Clifford5:50
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Stoll – Richards – Penner11:29
xG 0.14–0.57 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Richardson – Lewis – Loktionov6:43
xG 0.12–0.96 (11%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty16:19
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Greene – Johnson15:25
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Voynov13:38
xG 0.27–1.08 (20%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).