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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 22, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Boston Bruins 6, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

6

Final

Shootout

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS31506211052637
PHI110315110031538

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:50BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 2:05PHIMax TalbotAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Ilya Bryzgalov · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:01BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
  4. P1 12:30BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Adam McQuaid · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P2 3:23PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P2 7:25PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
  7. P2 19:13PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
  8. P3 1:19BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Rich Peverley, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
  9. P3 4:59BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Daniel Paille, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
  10. P3 10:38PHIMax TalbotPPAssists: Matt Carle, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.04 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Matt Read stopped
  2. 2. BOS David Krejci scored
  3. 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
  4. 4. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
  5. 5. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
Penalties (25)
  1. P1 1:24BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:24PHITom Sestito: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:13PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 5:31PHIScott Hartnell: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P1 6:40BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 6:40PHIMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 8:05PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P1 9:37PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 9:37BOSChris Kelly: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P1 9:37BOSChris Kelly: Fighting5 min
  11. P1 12:43PHIIlya Bryzgalov: Roughing2 min
  12. P1 14:05BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  13. P2 2:53BOSNathan Horton: Interference2 min · PPG
  14. P2 2:53PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 2:53BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
  16. P2 7:28PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  17. P2 7:28BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  18. P2 15:06BOSTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
  19. P2 18:25BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min · PPG
  20. P3 9:11BOSShawn Thornton: Interference2 min · PPG
  21. P3 9:11BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 9:11PHIScott Hartnell: Charging2 min
  23. P3 12:45BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
  24. P3 16:53BOSChris Kelly: Holding2 min
  25. OT 3:20PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
45% to win55% to win
← BOS attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kelly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPHI
37Shots on goal38
3.4Expected goals3.7
70Shot attempts74
43Faceoffs won36
5Power plays8
37Penalty minutes31
24Hits39
18Blocked shots19
8Giveaways9
7Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestThornton – Campbell – Paille4:29

    xG 0.71–0.13 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0

  2. Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:01

    xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1

  3. Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot6:54

    xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  4. Horton – Krejci – Lucic5:30

    xG 0.05–0.05 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSeidenberg – McQuaid7:20

    xG 0.89–0.42 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0

  2. Chara – Boychuk9:35

    xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0

  3. Chara – McQuaid4:27

    xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestTalbot – Sestito – Voracek4:58

    xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  2. Shelley – Holmstrom – Zolnierczyk3:25

    xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1

  3. Hartnell – Giroux – Schenn11:13

    xG 0.76–0.91 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0

  4. Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:46

    xG 0.14–0.70 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestTimonen – Coburn8:13

    xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2

  2. Coburn – Gustafsson2:49

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Coburn – Carle3:22

    xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.7 xGBOS 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #7 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.42 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).