Mon, Jan 23, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 012 | 18 | 128 |
| LAK | 16 | 320 | 08 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:39LAKWillie MitchellAssists: Kyle Clifford, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 11:08LAKKyle CliffordGWGAssists: Colin Fraser, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 17:54LAKJack JohnsonPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 19:27LAKTrevor LewisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–4
- P3 8:37OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:51OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:00LAKBrad Richardson: Interference2 min
- P1 8:12OTTMark Borowiecki: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:05OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:59OTTNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:08LAKJarret Stoll: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:16OTTBobby Butler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:14LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:24LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:34LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Turris9:07
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith8:46
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Condra4:39
xG 0.03–0.34 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler11:46
xG 0.62–0.96 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Cowen10:51
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Phillips – Borowiecki9:11
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kuba – Karlsson16:11
xG 0.55–1.07 (34%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Lewis – Loktionov9:10
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Fraser – Westgarth – Clifford5:12
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Stoll – Richards – Penner11:06
xG 0.25–0.27 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar8:25
xG 0.24–0.50 (33%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov10:01
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty14:25
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Greene – Johnson9:40
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).