Tue, Jan 24, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 212 | 08 | 332 |
| WSH | 010 | 38 | 25 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:46BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:14WSHCody EakinAssists: Joel Ward, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:55WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Alexander Semin, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:21BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Steven Kampfer · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 14:23WSHMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 17:42BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–3
- P3 7:18WSHMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–4
- P3 19:33WSHDennis WidemanENAssists: Troy Brouwer, Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:38BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:38WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:38BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:51WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15WSHMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:39
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Hamill5:03
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot5:58
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic5:51
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg12:31
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Kampfer5:23
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Chara – Corvo2:37
xG 0.20–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Perreault – Johansson10:28
xG 1.41–0.27 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 3–1
- Knuble – Chimera – Halpern13:04
xG 0.63–0.78 (45%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Brouwer14:18
xG 0.14–0.33 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Ward – Beagle – Eakin7:55
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Carlson14:26
xG 1.61–0.40 (80%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Hamrlik – Wideman2:18
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Erskine – Orlov8:18
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).