Tue, Jan 24, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 0, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 09 | 08 | 027 |
| DAL | 13 | 04 | 09 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:41DALAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:41ANARod Pelley: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:41DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:36DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:56ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:56DALStephane Robidas: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:03DALEric Nystrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Hagman7:50
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Bonino7:44
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake3:21
xG 0.13–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan13:59
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler19:35
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 24–13goals 0–1
- Lydman – Brookbank12:55
xG 0.24–0.15 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa16:01
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson15:37
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Dowell – Vincour – Fraser3:15
xG 0.05–0.09 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:10
xG 0.02–0.07 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell11:30
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Larsen15:42
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Souray – Robidas14:59
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann17:44
xG 0.34–0.85 (29%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).