Tue, Jan 24, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 113 | 112 | 234 |
| PHX | 19 | 110 | 17 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:53PHXGilbert BruleAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 16:08PHXShane DoanAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 17:39OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Nick Foligno, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 1:30PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 1:44OTTChris NeilAssists: Erik Condra, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:59PHXRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:04OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:04PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:00OTTSergei Gonchar: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:58OTTZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P2 12:21PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P3 11:26OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:00PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHXRostislav Klesla: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Turris9:42
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Condra2:18
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Condra – Smith2:26
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler8:31
xG 0.72–0.63 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Carkner7:54
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Kuba – Karlsson13:46
xG 0.78–0.75 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Gonchar – Phillips2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Gordon – Korpikoski12:43
xG 0.78–0.66 (54%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal14:30
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Torres – Chipchura6:29
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Langkow – Brule – Boedker7:55
xG 0.10–0.30 (26%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Summers10:29
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Aucoin – Yandle18:45
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson14:09
xG 0.16–1.05 (13%)attempts 5–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).