Wed, Jan 25, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 2, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 012 | 210 | 228 |
| MTL | 412 | 25 | 18 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08MTLRene BourqueAssists: Scott Gomez, Raphael Diaz · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 10:56MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 17:58MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P1 19:33MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Rene Bourque, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 1:52MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–5
- P2 4:18MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–6
- P3 0:21DETJiri HudlerAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 6:07DETJiri HudlerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Mike Commodore · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–6
- P3 18:37MTLErik ColeAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:45MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:04MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:12DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:30MTLP.K. Subban: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:27DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:33MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:11DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Hudler – Helm5:10
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Cleary – Miller – Helm5:29
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Emmerton5:35
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen8:07
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Kronwall10:37
xG 0.99–0.79 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Stuart – White10:32
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Kindl8:11
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:54
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Gomez – Plekanec – Bourque11:43
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Kostitsyn – Blunden – Eller9:24
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Darche – Blunden – Engqvist4:29
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Diaz3:07
xG 0.66–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban9:04
xG 0.68–0.05 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Emelin11:34
xG 1.13–0.81 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 4–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).