Tue, Jan 31, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 08 | 28 | 00 | 0 | 326 |
| NJD | 08 | 111 | 29 | 01 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:27NYRAnton StralmanAssists: Marian Gaborik, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 8:20NJDZach PariseAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 2:37NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Stu Bickel, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 15:25NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Patrik Elias, David Clarkson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 16:01NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Marian Gaborik, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:12NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 3. NJD Zach Parise stopped
- 4. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 6. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:11NYRMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P2 4:56NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P2 19:19NJDMark Fayne: Holding2 min
- P3 6:35NJDBrad Mills: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:23NYRArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Mitchell – Anisimov6:14
xG 0.72–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Hagelin – Stepan7:41
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan10:36
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust10:32
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Bickel5:58
xG 0.81–0.22 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh18:59
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:47
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Kovalchuk – Parise12:46
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Josefson9:16
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Carter – Mills4:11
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson11:07
xG 0.14–0.79 (15%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene12:07
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson5:51
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fayne – Larsson3:19
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).