Tue, Jan 31, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 19 | 04 | 04 | 1 | 224 |
| PHI | 16 | 07 | 013 | 02 | 0 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:11PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Matt Carle, Jaromir Jagr · Backhand, 0.38 xG0–1
- P2 2:06WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Nik Antropov, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Wellwood stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 5. PHI Jaromir Jagr stopped
- 6. WPG Bryan Little scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:04PHIJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:32WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:46PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:43WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:43PHITom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:42PHIJaromir Jagr: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Holmstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little15:34
xG 0.94–0.16 (86%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:27
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Fehr2:38
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Fehr6:59
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Jones13:14
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian17:43
xG 0.55–0.87 (39%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Oduya18:15
xG 0.26–0.58 (30%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux4:25
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Schenn – Read8:07
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read2:39
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Shelley – Sestito – Holmstrom5:59
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Gustafsson16:22
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn14:15
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Carle – Bourdon16:43
xG 0.60–0.84 (41%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).