Tue, Jan 31, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 213 | 29 | 03 | 0 | 439 |
| PIT | 06 | 111 | 314 | 04 | 1 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:51TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 9:55TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 16:07PITMatt CookeAssists: Paul Martin, Richard Park · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:18TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Carl Gunnarsson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 6:37TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 8:33PITSteve SullivanUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 15:01PITJoe VitaleAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:53PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Steve Sullivan · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 2. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 3. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 4. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 5. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 6. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:33PITJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:55PITTyler Kennedy: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:13TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:13PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:19PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:33TORMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Vitale
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:06
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 3–1
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:19
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Steckel – Crabb – Brown9:07
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Connolly – Lombardi – Kadri10:45
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Schenn9:58
xG 0.94–0.57 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Franson – Gardiner9:49
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner5:09
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kennedy – Jeffrey6:43
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Vitale2:31
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Adams – McDonald – Vitale5:13
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Park – Sullivan – Cooke8:28
xG 0.17–0.33 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek16:08
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Martin – Letang2:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang14:40
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).