Tue, Jan 31, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 110 | 38 | 526 |
| CAR | 08 | 05 | 210 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: John Tavares, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 16:19NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 3:15CARBrandon SutterAssists: Tim Gleason · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:55CARTim BrentPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 7:36NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Steve Staios · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 18:37NYIKyle OkposoENAssists: John Tavares, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
- P3 19:37NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:14CARJay Harrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:52CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:33CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30NYIPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRakhshani – Bailey – Martin8:53
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares13:59
xG 0.88–0.35 (71%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter6:38
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner10:47
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit11:35
xG 1.08–0.45 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina13:11
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:13
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Tlusty4:49
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Tlusty7:52
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Nash – Skinner7:30
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter10:39
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk17:20
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Harrison – McBain2:02
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Joslin – McBain12:26
xG 0.15–0.53 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).