Tue, Jan 31, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 3, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 04 | 210 | 325 |
| CGY | 07 | 111 | 011 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57DETCory EmmertonAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Jan Mursak · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:59CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 11:29DETJiri HudlerGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 15:58DETDrew MillerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:41DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:26CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:51DETMike Commodore: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:51CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:34DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:42CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:33DETBrad Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 10:33CGYAlex Tanguay: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:56CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:56DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:36CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler10:10
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Helm5:35
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen13:00
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Emmerton – Mursak5:54
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White13:10
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Commodore – Ericsson7:01
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – White3:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jones – Bouma6:18
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Comeau2:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Cammalleri4:31
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Jones – Bouma2:42
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie12:20
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler16:20
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Hannan – Giordano9:50
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).