Tue, Jan 31, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 112 | 115 | 233 |
| EDM | 211 | 08 | 14 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59EDMJordan EberleAssists: Sam Gagner, Philippe Cornet · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:37EDMEric BelangerPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ryan Jones · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 1:16COLPeter MuellerAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 6:01EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 10:14COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Milan Hejduk, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:10EDMBen Eager: Holding2 min
- P1 15:47COLTJ Galiardi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:01EDMJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:50
xG 0.97–0.02 (98%)attempts 25–1goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Stastny – Mueller8:14
xG 0.87–0.16 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- McClement – Jones – Winnik9:15
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Mueller – Galiardi2:48
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Wilson11:46
xG 0.86–0.71 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Quincey – Johnson17:26
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 27–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda14:58
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEager – Petrell – Lander7:33
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall13:25
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Cornet9:17
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Smyth – Belanger – Jones11:01
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry16:20
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter13:58
xG 0.11–0.75 (12%)attempts 5–22goals 0–1
- Sutton – Peckham14:34
xG 0.51–1.37 (27%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).