Wed, Feb 1, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 6, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 310 | 17 | 29 | 626 |
| ANA | 111 | 113 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Sheldon Brookbank · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:56DALEric NystromAssists: Alex Goligoski, Philip Larsen · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 16:41DALVernon FiddlerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 17:50DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Steve Ott, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 7:14DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 8:36ANALuca SbisaAssists: Teemu Selanne · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 0:36DALSheldon SourayAssists: Michael Ryder, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 17:34DALMichael RyderAssists: Steve Ott, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:51DALMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09ANASaku Koivu: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:26DALSheldon Souray: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:05ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:21ANATeemu Selanne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:51DALSheldon Souray: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:17DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Ott – Benn11:46
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 3–0
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell6:19
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:02
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson10:26
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas15:01
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Goligoski – Larsen12:26
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Daley – Fistric13:41
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan9:55
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey4:13
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano5:44
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Ryan – Bonino – Palmieri3:31
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Brookbank12:30
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Visnovsky – Sbisa12:00
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:25
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).