Thu, Feb 2, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 3, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 110 | 09 | 330 |
| NJD | 15 | 19 | 38 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Rene Bourque, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 9:23MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Yannick Weber, Louis Leblanc · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 10:36NJDZach PariseAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 1:35MTLMathieu DarcheSHAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Hal Gill · Snap, 0.44 xG3–1
- P2 13:43NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Mark Fayne · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 6:11NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, David Clarkson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 17:16NJDZach PariseGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:28NJDDavid ClarksonENAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.65 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:49MTLErik Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:37NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:54NJDPatrik Elias: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:07MTLRaphael Diaz: Interference2 min
- P2 13:18MTLErik Cole: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:17MTLRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:45NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Plekanec – Bourque5:00
xG 0.20–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Darche – Blunden – Eller3:39
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty14:11
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Darche – Plekanec – Bourque3:23
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Diaz6:59
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban14:40
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Gill – Weber6:51
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Ponikarovsky – Clarkson4:16
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Carter3:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Parise4:21
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Josefson2:40
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson6:27
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Taormina – Larsson4:43
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).