Thu, Feb 2, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 115 | 115 | 18 | 05 | 2 | 443 |
| VAN | 18 | 03 | 213 | 01 | 0 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:13VANRyan KeslerAssists: David Booth, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 13:51DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brad Stuart · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 10:10VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Maxim Lapierre · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 12:05DETDrew MillerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 15:36VANMason RaymondAssists: Sami Salo, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Alexander Edler stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 3. VAN Mason Raymond stopped
- 4. DET Jiri Hudler scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:40VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:50DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:19VANRyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:22VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:53DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:53VANMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:09VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44DETTodd Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:44VANKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Helm9:33
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton4:24
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:08
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Filppula2:01
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl9:00
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Lidstrom – White15:12
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Stuart – White2:44
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Booth – Raymond7:27
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Sedin – Kesler – Booth5:48
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Raymond – Hodgson4:24
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Burrows – Lapierre – Hansen5:02
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler13:23
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Rome2:46
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Ballard – Rome10:20
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).