Thu, Feb 2, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 14 | 110 | 221 |
| SJS | 215 | 213 | 19 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42SJSMichal HandzusAssists: Brent Burns, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:32SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 12:41DALSteve OttPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 14:59SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 16:43SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 6:22DALJamie BennAssists: Philip Larsen, Steve Ott · Tip-in, 0.49 xG2–4
- P3 11:34SJSRyane CloweAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.26 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:12DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:40SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:40DALAdam Burish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:00DALSteve Ott: Holding2 min
- P2 4:58SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:19SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:36DALVernon Fiddler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:22DALEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Ott – Benn11:07
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:37
xG 0.05–0.93 (5%)attempts 4–20goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson12:03
xG 0.17–1.06 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen14:47
xG 1.09–0.61 (64%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Fistric – Goligoski2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Fistric5:17
xG 0.05–0.20 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Mitchell – McGinn9:43
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Desjardins11:13
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture10:26
xG 0.91–0.67 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Braun6:27
xG 1.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic11:45
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Murray – Burns9:14
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).