Fri, Feb 3, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 113 | 06 | 08 | 127 |
| CGY | 16 | 116 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:24CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:31CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:56CGYJay BouwmeesterPPGWGAssists: Blair Jones, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P3 12:39CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Chris Butler · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:47CGYBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P2 10:33CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:36CHIMichael Frolik: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 9:13CHISteve Montador: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:54CHISteve Montador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:36CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Toews – Kane11:49
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Kruger8:46
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Shaw6:07
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Morrison – Mayers – Frolik6:02
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Leddy8:46
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:36
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
- O'Donnell – Montador2:34
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Tanguay12:16
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Comeau – Backlund – Bouma11:34
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan6:18
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kolanos – Cammalleri – Jones8:35
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler15:36
xG 1.03–0.54 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Sarich – Brodie12:03
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano15:29
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).