Fri, Feb 3, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 14 | 19 | 12 | 321 |
| ANA | 110 | 114 | 09 | 02 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Luca Sbisa · Tip-in, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 14:47CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, John Moore · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:52ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 2:05CBJJeff CarterPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 3:55CBJDerick BrassardGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:57ANAToni Lydman: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:25ANALuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:29CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:29CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:21CBJVinny Prospal: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:42CBJColton Gillies: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:56CBJDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:26CBJFedor Tyutin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:11ANASheldon Brookbank: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:36ANATeemu Selanne: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett9:13
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Russell3:28
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Prospal – Carter – Gillies9:08
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard12:46
xG 0.49–0.85 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Moore2:35
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Clitsome7:04
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Lebda4:18
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestParros – Pelley – Beleskey4:26
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman10:58
xG 0.78–0.51 (61%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Blake – Cogliano – Bonino8:21
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:03
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa11:17
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:48
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Lydman – Brookbank11:05
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).