Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 6, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 317 | 313 | 01 | 631 |
| PHI | 07 | 010 | 424 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05NJDKurtis FosterPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:03NJDIlya KovalchukSHAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 19:59NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 0:38NJDZach ParisePPAssists: David Clarkson, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–0
- P2 1:37NJDAlexei PonikarovskyGWGAssists: Steve Bernier, Jacob Josefson · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–0
- P2 8:22NJDKurtis FosterPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.11 xG6–0
- P3 3:59PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Marc-Andre Bourdon · Backhand, 0.20 xG6–1
- P3 9:23PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Matt Carle, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.07 xG6–2
- P3 12:40PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 13:31PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Matt Carle, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.15 xG6–4
Penalties (22)
- P1 1:15PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:15PHIKimmo Timonen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:42NJDEric Boulton: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:38PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:09NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min
- P1 19:59PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:54PHITom Sestito: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:05PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:34NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 19:40NJDEric Boulton: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:21NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:38PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:38NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 11:38PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:38NJDAnton Volchenkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:38NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:38PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:38NJDBryce Salvador: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:38PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:52NJDAlexei Ponikarovsky: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:37NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Bernier – Josefson5:06
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Parise5:21
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Sykora – Zubrus – Clarkson8:16
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene10:45
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov11:16
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Foster – Taormina8:20
xG 0.11–0.43 (21%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux8:12
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Rinaldo – Schenn5:44
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier6:25
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Shelley – Sestito – Read2:51
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon9:08
xG 0.84–0.15 (85%)attempts 19–3goals 3–0
- Timonen – Coburn7:06
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Lilja – Meszaros6:29
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).