Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 03 | 29 | 323 |
| MTL | 010 | 010 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:10WSHDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 6:11WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Brooks Laich, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.36 xG2–0
- P3 11:57WSHAlexander SeminUnassisted · Slap, 0.41 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:02MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:14MTLPeter Budaj: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P2 9:41MTLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:06WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:57MTLTomas Kaberle: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 19:29MTLErik Cole: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Halpern – Ward – Aucoin5:56
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Semin – Johansson3:26
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Brouwer7:20
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Knuble – Chimera – Perreault8:50
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Orlov14:15
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Wideman – Schultz13:15
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Darche – Eller10:22
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:26
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Kostitsyn – Bourque12:22
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban15:00
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Campoli – Diaz11:20
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Gill – Emelin3:47
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).