Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 010 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 329 |
| COL | 118 | 112 | 011 | 05 | 0 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31VANRyan KeslerAssists: Alexander Edler, David Booth · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:14COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:39COLJay McClementAssists: Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:25VANKevin BieksaAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 2. VAN Maxim Lapierre stopped
- 3. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 4. VAN Mason Raymond scored
- 5. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:51COLTJ Galiardi: Elbowing2 min
- P1 8:46VANDavid Booth: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 10:46VANMason Raymond: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:42COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:42VANByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:32COLTJ Galiardi: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:20COLChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:46VANDan Hamhuis: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:02COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:37VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P3 11:17COLDaniel Winnik: Holding2 min
- P3 13:56COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:56VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Kesler3:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bitz – Booth – Hodgson2:36
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond7:20
xG 0.29–0.29 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Bitz – Hansen – Hodgson4:02
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler9:17
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ballard – Rome11:25
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa13:45
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog9:45
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Winnik – Galiardi8:04
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Van Der Gulik – Porter – McLeod3:07
xG 0.08–0.26 (25%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Jones – Stastny10:56
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hejda12:26
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Hunwick12:49
xG 0.72–0.70 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Quincey – Johnson11:53
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).