Sat, Feb 4, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 010 | 07 | 125 |
| CAR | 04 | 111 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Justin Williams, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 15:40CARJiri TlustyUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 3:02CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Drayson Bowman · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:20LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:28CARAnthony Stewart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:31LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:34LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:34CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:39CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06LAKBrad Richardson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Loktionov – Clifford9:58
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar13:08
xG 1.09–1.03 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Hunter – Fraser – Richardson7:44
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Stoll – Richards – Penner11:48
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez12:15
xG 1.24–0.63 (66%)attempts 24–8goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Johnson16:30
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty16:57
xG 0.36–0.82 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Tlusty12:31
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Bowman – Skinner8:36
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter10:24
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Nash5:09
xG 0.02–0.64 (3%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk14:41
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Spacek – McBain10:57
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Allen – Gleason16:32
xG 0.65–1.14 (36%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).