Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 016 | 07 | 120 | 143 |
| NSH | 214 | 017 | 16 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:30NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 4:01STLChris PorterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:37NSHSergei KostitsynENAssists: David Legwand, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:28STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:07NSHJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:59STLScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:27NSHBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:27STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:49NSHCraig Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNichol – Crombeen – Reaves6:43
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Stewart – Berglund6:44
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Backes – Oshie6:54
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Porter – Sobotka – D'Agostini9:13
xG 0.60–0.83 (42%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Pietrangelo5:54
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell7:12
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak4:37
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:56
xG 1.60–0.45 (78%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:46
xG 1.02–0.42 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Smith2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Halischuk – Smith3:16
xG 0.01–0.08 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber19:28
xG 1.54–0.49 (76%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Ellis12:46
xG 0.81–0.69 (54%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein3:05
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).