Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 213 | 111 | 335 |
| PHX | 010 | 36 | 28 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:44SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 4:16PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Michal Rozsival, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:29PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Shane Doan, Boyd Gordon · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:26SJSJamie McGinnPPAssists: Brent Burns, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:13PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 8:03PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Shane Doan · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 19:27SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:59PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Ray Whitney, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:37SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:05PHXAdrian Aucoin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:12PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:14SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Couture12:07
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn7:01
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Desjardins11:36
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Winchester – McCarthy – Ferriero4:55
xG 0.01–0.18 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Braun8:13
xG 1.03–0.16 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun2:12
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic15:21
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Gordon – Korpikoski13:15
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal14:44
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Langkow – Torres – Boedker9:34
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Chipchura – Brule5:43
xG 0.03–0.49 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Ekman-Larsson14:38
xG 0.67–0.61 (53%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Yandle15:21
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Morris – Rozsival13:53
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).