Sun, Feb 5, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 110 | 19 | 230 |
| NJD | 210 | 29 | 16 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Patrik Elias, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 9:33NJDAnton VolchenkovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 2:28NJDDainius ZubrusSHGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P2 3:02PITMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Cal O'Reilly, Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 11:22NJDZach PariseAssists: Steve Bernier, Andy Greene · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 11:43PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:13NJDDavid ClarksonENAssists: Martin Brodeur · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:39PITJoe Vitale: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:09NJDKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P2 11:33PITJoe Vitale: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:24NJDAnton Volchenkov: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Kennedy – O'Reilly10:19
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Jeffrey10:07
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Park – Adams – Vitale3:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal14:00
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek8:45
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang2:50
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang10:45
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Kovalchuk – Parise12:34
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Sykora – Zubrus – Clarkson10:05
xG 0.25–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Henrique11:58
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Boulton – Mills – Josefson6:01
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:33
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Foster – Taormina13:04
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov18:04
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).