Sun, Feb 5, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 08 | 08 | 023 |
| MTL | 111 | 211 | 01 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:02MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Yannick Weber, Aaron Palushaj · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 7:20MTLAlexei EmelinSHAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Mathieu Darche · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 11:28MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:31WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:03MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:05MTLMathieu Darche: Interference2 min
- P2 5:59MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:05WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:25MTLErik Cole: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:03WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:58MTLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:07WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMiettinen – Gagnon – Burmistrov6:45
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Machacek7:22
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:28
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:51
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:47
xG 0.78–0.31 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian13:45
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Stuart10:16
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Plekanec – Bourque12:42
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Palushaj – Eller – Leblanc7:30
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty6:59
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gomez – Cole – Kostitsyn4:11
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Weber7:58
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban10:04
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Gorges – Campoli2:24
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).