Mon, Feb 6, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 1, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 114 | 011 | 131 |
| PHX | 16 | 18 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22PHXBoyd GordonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 6:55PHXMartin HanzalPPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 17:24DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 19:31PHXMartin HanzalENAssists: Ray Whitney, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:58DETIan White: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:36PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:29DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28DETIan White: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:16DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04PHXMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:14PHXRostislav Klesla: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:03PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen4:48
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Filppula – Hudler6:39
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen6:13
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton6:04
xG 0.12–0.13 (46%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson15:03
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White16:47
xG 0.62–0.52 (55%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Commodore – Kindl8:22
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Chipchura – Brule7:29
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:10
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Langkow – Torres – Boedker7:28
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Gordon – Korpikoski12:19
xG 0.40–0.79 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Rozsival11:12
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Yandle14:13
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson14:24
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).