Mon, Feb 6, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 16 | 19 | 00 | 2 | 226 |
| ANA | 211 | 011 | 08 | 03 | 3 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52ANABobby RyanAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:51ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Teemu Selanne · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 4:41CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Blair Jones, Scott Hannan · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 6:15CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
- 2. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
- 3. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 4. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 5. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 6. CGY Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 7. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 8. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
- 9. ANA Bobby Ryan scored
- 10. CGY Blair Jones scored
- 11. ANA Jason Blake stopped
- 12. CGY Krys Kolanos stopped
- 13. ANA Cam Fowler stopped
- 14. CGY TJ Brodie stopped
- 15. ANA Niklas Hagman scored
- 16. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:23ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:39CGYTom Kostopoulos: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:27CGYScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 6:51CGYBlair Jones: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:03ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P2 10:03CGYMark Giordano: Diving2 min
- P3 2:40CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:40ANALuca Sbisa: Head butting5 min · PPG
- P3 2:40ANALuca Sbisa: Head butting10 min
- P3 14:33ANACam Fowler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:03CGYKrys Kolanos: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Tanguay10:56
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Comeau – Jones3:48
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Cammalleri2:50
xG 0.01–0.02 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kolanos – Backlund – Bouma2:35
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler14:08
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Hannan – Giordano15:52
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Sarich – Brodie7:30
xG 0.07–0.47 (12%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBlake – Cogliano – Bonino10:14
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Hagman – Parros – Pelley4:30
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:13
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Beleskey10:53
xG 0.22–0.58 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler14:15
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa7:35
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Lydman – Brookbank12:27
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).