Tue, Feb 7, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 013 | 09 | 129 |
| CBJ | 114 | 19 | 114 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:59CBJDavid SavardAssists: Vinny Prospal, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 18:39MINNate ProsserAssists: Justin Falk, Carson McMillan · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 15:31CBJAntoine VermettePPGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:38CBJJeff CarterAssists: Colton Gillies, David Savard · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:16MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P1 7:10MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:10CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:55CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:31MINCal Clutterbuck: Charging2 min
- P2 12:46CBJDavid Savard: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:23MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:46MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:01MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:36MINNick Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:35MINMarek Zidlicky: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPeters – Ortmeyer – Kassian3:20
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Clutterbuck – McMillan8:19
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Johnson14:35
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Christensen – Setoguchi – Powe7:24
xG 0.10–1.34 (7%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Spurgeon12:03
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon2:11
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky11:36
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Carter – Gillies8:41
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett4:51
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard9:09
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Russell5:59
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Savard9:20
xG 1.37–0.50 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson13:38
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Methot – Moore16:27
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).