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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 7, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT01101129032234
MTL01011413033330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:21MTLLouis LeblancAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P3 1:03PITPascal DupuisSHAssists: Joe Vitale · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:00MTLLars EllerAssists: Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:32PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Rene Bourque scored
  2. 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  3. 3. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
  4. 4. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
  5. 5. MTL David Desharnais stopped
  6. 6. PIT James Neal stopped
  7. 7. MTL Erik Cole stopped
  8. 8. PIT Cal O'Reilly stopped
  9. 9. MTL Lars Eller scored
  10. 10. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
  11. 11. MTL Louis Leblanc stopped
  12. 12. PIT Steve Sullivan stopped
  13. 13. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
  14. 14. PIT Pascal Dupuis stopped
  15. 15. MTL Tomas Plekanec scored
  16. 16. PIT Jason Williams stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 2:33MTLLars Eller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P2 7:19MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 13:17PITJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 15:24MTLScott Gomez: Holding2 min
  5. P2 0:00PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 15:18PITJames Neal: High sticking2 min
  7. OT 5:00MTLMathieu Darche: Interference2 min
  8. OT 5:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
45% to win55% to win
← PIT attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Vitale
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITMTL
34Shots on goal30
2.9Expected goals2.7
65Shot attempts48
31Faceoffs won14
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
26Hits19
7Blocked shots14
7Giveaways10
6Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal12:06

    xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0

  2. Sullivan – McDonald – O'Reilly2:52

    xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Cooke – Williams – Jeffrey3:28

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Dupuis – Williams – Jeffrey2:15

    xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMartin – Michalek12:35

    xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0

  2. Martin – Letang2:48

    xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Orpik – Letang11:37

    xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty6:57

    xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Gomez – Kostitsyn – Pacioretty3:43

    xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Bourque – Eller – Leblanc6:46

    xG 0.02–0.02 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  4. Darche – Moen – Plekanec9:20

    xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKaberle – Campoli6:13

    xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0

  2. Gill – Emelin2:11

    xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

  3. Kaberle – Emelin4:24

    xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.7 xGPIT 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #318 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.96 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).